Who will Win 2024 Elections?
The Viral Post
As India prepares for the Lok Sabha elections, the outcome of which is widely anticipated, the world's largest political party the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is methodically planning its strategy for the 2024 elections. This preparation involves charting a path through a series of achievements and strategic initiatives that delineate the forthcoming political landscape. To thoroughly analyze the expected outcomes of India's 2024 General Elections, tools such as Large Language Models (LLMs), the BJP's five-year performance review—referred to as the scorecard—and the "Mood of the Nation" (MOTN) poll have been employed.
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From the impact of Ram Mandir's construction and the revocation of Article 370 to the meticulous planning of economic reforms and integral humanism, each strategic step hits a chord that resonates with the heartbeat of the nation. Amidst the complexity of political dynamics, the effective handling of the COVID-19 pandemic by the BJP is a testament to its resilience and excellent leadership. When we look at the chronicles of the past, the interaction of victories, challenges and ambitions paves the way for a national discourse that mirrors the sentiments that may shape the 2024 electoral landscape.
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government's commitment to "Integral Humanism" serves as the philosophical foundation for its economic policies, placing the well-being of citizens at the forefront – “The Nation First.” Integral Humanism, articulated by Deendayal Upadhyaya, underscores the importance of indigenous economic models that prioritise human welfare over purely materialistic goals.
In practical terms, the government has translated this philosophy into economic reforms aimed at fostering inclusive growth. By focusing on sectors that directly impact the lives of citizens, such as agriculture, healthcare, and education, the BJP has demonstrated a holistic approach to economic development. The emphasis on rural and urban development, coupled with social welfare programmes, aligns with the Integral Humanism philosophy, which seeks to balance material progress with human-centric values.
By highlighting these economic changes within the perspective of Integral Humanism, the government may depict itself as a caring and responsible custodian of the nation's economic well-being. Emphasizing measures that raise the standard of living for all, rather than just a chosen few, strengthens the government's commitment to establishing an equal society and appeals to a wide range of people. This story, when successfully presented, frames the BJP as a party committed to attaining economic prosperity with a human touch.
The construction of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya stands as a monumental achievement for the BJP, rooted in India's cultural and religious history. The culmination of a prolonged legal and social debate, the construction not only fulfils a key promise made by the party but also addresses the sentiments of millions of Indians who have long awaited the restoration of Lord Ram's birthplace.
The significance of the Ram Mandir extends beyond religious symbolism; it embodies the government's commitment to cultural heritage and national identity. By successfully battling the legal complexities and initiating the construction, the BJP demonstrates its ability to resolve long-standing issues, fostering unity and a sense of fulfilment among a large section of the population.
The Ram Mandir becomes a powerful narrative for the BJP, portraying the government as a custodian of cultural values and a facilitator of religious harmony. Emphasising this achievement in the upcoming elections allows the party to connect with voters on a deeply emotional and cultural level, reinforcing the image of a government that delivers on its promises and respects the diverse fabric of the nation.
One of the most decisive and transformative moves of the BJP government has been the revocation of Article 370, a significant and long-standing provision that granted special autonomy to the then state of Jammu and Kashmir. This bold decision was a pivotal moment in India's history, underscoring the government's commitment to national integration and security.
Article 370 has been a bone of contention for decades, leading to a complex sociopolitical landscape in J&K. The revocation, which was executed in August 2019, marked a departure from the status quo, to bring the region into the mainstream of national development.
From a political perspective, the revocation resonates with a substantial portion of the electorate, emphasising the government's willingness to take bold steps for the greater national interest. By integrating Jammu and Kashmir more closely with the rest of the country, the BJP demonstrated a commitment to unity and a rejection of separatist sentiments.
In the context of the 2024 elections, the revocation of Article 370 can be presented as a courageous and forward-looking move that prioritises the unity and integrity of the nation. Effectively communicating positive outcomes, such as improved governance, economic development, and improved security, can solidify the BJP's image as a party that takes decisive actions to safeguard the nation's interests.
The BJP government's commitment to inclusive development is evident through an array of impactful social welfare programs. Initiatives like Pradhan Mantri, Jan Dhan Yojana, Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, and Ayushman Bharat address various social needs. PM Jan Dhan Yojana fosters economic stability by providing basic banking services to every household. Swachh Bharat focuses on cleanliness and civic responsibility, transforming public health. Ayushman Bharat, the world's largest health insurance scheme, ensures healthcare access, especially for economically vulnerable sections.
Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN), initiated in 2019, supports small farmers with direct income assistance. Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) promotes clean cooking for below-poverty-line households. Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, a COVID-19 response, aids vulnerable sections through PM Garib Kalyan Yojana. The Saubhagya Yojana, launched in 2017, strives for universal electrification.
These programmes showcase the BJP's dedication to citizens' well-being, going beyond rhetoric to uplift living standards. In the lead-up to the 2024 elections, highlighting the positive impacts on the ground reinforces the government's image as a provider of meaningful and inclusive governance.
External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar's affirmation regarding the transformation of the 3C’s— Capabilities, Credibility, and Context—in India's foreign policy underscores the notable achievements of the BJP government on the global stage.
Capabilities: The government's strategic investments in enhancing India's diplomatic, economic, and military capabilities have been pivotal in reshaping its role in the international arena. Initiatives like Make in India and the push for defence self-reliance have bolstered India's position as a key player, not just in regional affairs but on the global stage.
Credibility: The government's commitment to maintaining credibility in international engagements has been exemplified by its consistent adherence to principles and commitments. This is evident in India's stance on various global issues contributing to its image as a responsible and reliable actor. The successful handling of diplomatic challenges, such as border tensions, has further enhanced India's credibility among the global community.
The BJP government's foreign policy has adeptly navigated the evolving global context. From fostering strategic partnerships to addressing emerging challenges like climate change and global health crises, India's foreign policy underlines its ability to adapt and engage constructively in an ever-changing geopolitical landscape.
These transformations in the 3C’s signify a maturation of India's foreign policy, positioning the country as a key influencer in international affairs. As the government communicates these achievements, it projects an image of a nation that is not only capable but also credible and context-aware in its global engagement. This narrative can contribute significantly to the BJP's appeal in the upcoming 2024 elections, showcasing a government that has elevated India's standing on the world stage.
The Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey indicates that the public perceives this crisis management as a significant success, with 20% of respondents crediting the government for its handling. The positive sentiment generated from the pandemic response is considered a crucial factor that can enhance the BJP's electoral appeal. The article emphasises the importance of integrating successful pandemic management into the broader narrative of the government's achievements, aligning with its commitment to the well-being of citizens. Additionally, addressing public concerns such as unemployment and price rise, along with a strategic communication strategy, is crucial to further enhance the BJP's electoral prospects.
The “Mood of the Nation” (MOTN) survey predicts a third consecutive victory for the PM Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in 2024. The survey anticipates the NDA securing 335 seats, comfortably surpassing the required majority. The BJP is projected to win 304 seats independently, while the INDIA opposition bloc is expected to secure 166 seats. The survey reflects the public's perception of PM Modi's legacy, citing achievements such as the Ram Mandir construction, raising India's global stature, and the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The findings of the Mood of the Nation survey align with the political landscape discussed earlier, where the BJP-led NDA's achievements and public sentiment play a crucial role in shaping electoral dynamics. The survey reinforces the BJP's stronghold, emphasising key accomplishments such as the Ram Mandir construction and global positioning. These findings can be strategically integrated into the election narrative, highlighting the public's acknowledgement of the government's successes, which include cultural, economic, and diplomatic achievements. Such positive sentiments can contribute significantly to the BJP's appeal in the upcoming elections, as they align with the narrative built around the government's performance and achievements discussed earlier.
In conclusion, as the BJP prepares for the 2024 elections, a picture of accomplishments and strategic initiatives develops, demonstrating resilient leadership. From the powerful resonance of the Ram Mandir building to the deliberate execution of economic reforms and integrated humanism, each decision speaks to the nation's thoughts. The competent management of the COVID-19 epidemic demonstrates intelligent governance, while global policy actions strengthen India's international reputation. The insights from the LLM Models, Score Card, and MOTN Survey portray a picture of a party that is sensitive to the desires of its supporters. As the political environment evolves, the dynamic interaction of triumph, obstacles, and goals creates the foundation for a national discourse. The positive sentiment drawn from social empowerment schemes further fortifies the BJP's position. The journey ahead holds promise and potential, reflecting the sentiments that may shape the electoral landscape in 2024. With the present achievements echoing, the nation eagerly awaits the next chapter, optimistic about witnessing the progress propelled by the BJP.
- The author is a researcher in political science.
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